Don’t sleep on MLB for Arbitrage betting
Since the start of the season, there have been a TON of arbitrage opportunities. I don’t fully understand the negative view on arbitrage betting baseball. We’re only a couple of days into the season and I’m up quite a bit on baseball alone.
People claiming that the MLB is “horrible for arbitrage betting” are misinformed and wrong. Or, they just haven’t done it and are assuming it is due to the slow-paced nature of a baseball game. We all know how out of sync sportsbooks can be when the NBA or NCAA basketball is on. But baseball arbitrage betting opportunities are different from your usual arbs for NBA and NCAA.
What kind of arbitrage bets are there for baseball?
The most common arbitrage betting opportunities are MLB Strikeout Props. These happen prematch and are constantly 6%+ ROI plays.
Here is one that I hit while lying in bed…
To break down the math here, I took:
- Chris Bassit to record 6 or more strikeouts on Fanduel. If this wins, we collect a payout of $917, and a profit of $67.
- Chris Bassit to record 5 strikeouts or less on Caesars. If this wins, we collect a payout of $70, and a profit of $70.
I am guaranteed to make $67+ regardless if he goes over or under. It only took me one minute to place these bets, I can usually find 3-5 of these a day.
Other opportunities include 1st 3, 5, 7 innings total and spreads. These have been EXTREMELY profitable for me last season and so far, have been incredible.
Other forms of player props like 1+, 2+ hits/rbi’s/runs/steals have been easy arbitrage bets to place and hit.
Prematch arbitrage betting vs live arbitrage betting for the MLB is pretty 50/50. Making this a viable option for those who only want to stick to prematch or for those who do both prematch and live.
These are some prematch arbitrage bets that were sitting on the board most of the day.
+EV plays for the MLB
Where there are arbitrage bets, there are many +EV bets as well. Many of the prematch player prop lines are massively mispriced across several sportsbooks. This leaves opportunities for massive +EV opportunities. On a typical day there is a ton of value on the board.
This is an insane +EV play I hit a couple of days ago…
This line opened at over 6.5 strikeouts at +126 odds and closed at -110 before the start of the game. Not only were you able to arbitrage this play for about a 4% ROI, it ended up being an high +EV play.