Data from reforging 15,000 Catalysts.

Hi all.

Video presentation for those that prefer it (https://youtu.be/rjikrT6Bfzo)

I wanted to know the weightings for Catalysts from the Reforging bench (if any), and to see if it was a Markov Chain or not, as the Harvest Bench operates in this manner in Path of Exile 1.

I reforged 15,000 Carapace Catalysts, and recorded the data in this spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SYVxZaY1-ONHFjMKxW_n6rC_IerauWZ_Dk1RTlgrXYk/edit?usp=sharing

It appears that it is not a Markov Chain and that you can get any Catalyst from three Catalysts of the same type.

Here is the data, type of Catalyst, Number returned (out of 5,000) and Percentage Chance of each.

Adaptive Catalyst 554 11.08

Carapace Catalyst 663 13.26

Chayula's Catalyst 204 4.08

Flesh Catalyst 658 13.16

Esh's Catalyst 416 8.32

Sibilant Catalyst 285 5.7

Neural Catalyst 679 13.58

Xoph's Catalyst 402 8.04

Uul-Netol's Catalyst 345 6.9

Tul's Catalyst 420 8.4

Reaver Catalyst 239 4.78

Skittering Catalyst 135 2.7

Skittering is the Rarest, and Neural the most common, from this data set.

If you have questions, please let me know, and I will do my best to answer them.